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February 4th, 2012 09:52 PM | by admin | Football.
Hi i bet on football quite often and im hoping to share good bets with other like minded punters. I like to bet on first goalscorers and correct scores. I like to pick 3 fav teams and 3 scorelines for each team which = 27 trebles. This is quite a good bt i like to do. Also i like to bet on first goalscorers all the time. Does anyone know of any good betting strategies to use for correct scores or goalscoreres which are successful?
You should look into arbitrage betting systems. This is the only kind of betting system that i would mathematically define as ‘good’. Other systems rely more on luck or intuition, arbitrage systems are zero risk.
Also check my source, its a wiki. So if you want to share any of your strategies you could write articles about them.
I only need to know if I bet for example 3 from 6 and I guess 3 matches right will will I win enough to get the original bet money back or will I get less or more??
Sorry for english I hope you understand what I mean.
idk
I’ve been betting on football matches and also other football related bets for a while and winning the occasional bet but I would like to try and win some more! I’ve heard of loads of different betting systems but looking on the internet I’ve found lots of rubbish (to put it mildly) so I’m hoping someone can send me to a more trusted source.
Fingers crossed!
Hi Bruce,
Unfortunately nothing is guaranteed in betting but there are certainly a lot of things that can help you to win more often than lose.
I always say the first thing to do is to make use of all the free bet offers that are out there, they will effectively give you a second chance to win which is always handy. You should aim to get the best prices and make sure you look at lots of different bookmakers in order to get the price; William Hill (http://bit.ly/h1EH4A) and Bet365 (http://bit.ly/gOYddM) are a good place to start.
As you’re interested in Football, there’s a betting service I’m subscribed to that gives me monthly tips it’s called Football Betting Master. They do a load of analysis of form etc and then normally provide tips on over or under betting in football, so more than a certain number of goals per game. (http://bit.ly/e7XxII)
And another ‘handbook’ that I find very handy is The Premier Football Betting Handbook 2010/11: http://bit.ly/g9W3M4 (The Independent reviewed it and gave it their book of the week, “Their advice on how to get the best price alone would pay for this book” – and I agree)
Good luck, remember to keep it fun at all times and to make sure you don’t bet more than you can afford to lose as that’s always the biggest mistake to make…
i want to get a betting system together for me and the guys this season on football games and i was wondering what a good way to do it would be and if there are any web pages that may offer ideas or printouts that i can use to do this..
Just have a pool. Everyone says who they think will win, winning side splits up the pool. And be careful, as I’m not sure what the laws are on betting on sports…
for the on going australia football season i need a key system for predition on teams tha can result as a draws weekly.
What are you taking about
thats a mug,s game
i wanna know a good strategy or system or advice about betting on football.i usually play with liverpool,Juventus real Madrid etc
For a start I would avoid betting on Liverpool, they are too inconsistent this season.
My friend has his own system where he picks a decent forward at the start of every season, and every game that his team play, he bets that this player would be the first goalscorer. Over the season he tends to do well, and when he had Ronaldo in his last season at Old Trafford he made a fortune.
I would like to bet on Horse Racing or Football and try to make between £15-£20 a day.
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What’s the most foolproof system to use on betfair for backing and laying.
Scenarios,
Team A (1.5 to win pre match) and Team B (6.1 to win pre-match).
So lets say you back Team A for £50.
So say it’s still 0-0 at 80min should you then back the draw..
Or
it’s 80min and 0-1 (Team B winning) should you then back B or lay Team A. Basically what would be the best exit strategy here. What is your system of betting on football?
Unless you know the actual probability that Team A will win then there is no foolproof way to win. However you do know that the bookie set the odds for team A to win and for team B to win such that he’s likely to make money hence they don’t actually reflect his real estimate of what the probabilities are but they do define an upper bound and a lower bound for his estimate.
You can calculate the midpoint and use that as a slightly better guess at what the actual probability is. That is for team A to win it would be (1/(1.5+1) + (1 – 1/(6.1+1)))/2 = 0.6296. So it’s reasonable to think that the bookie actually thinks that team A has a 62.96% chance of winning and has set the payout odds evenly around that. Now we know that isn’t true because the bookie will adjust the payouts such that he’s covered either way so the odds would’ve changed due to market forces so the best you can say is that this is the market consensus as to the probability of winning.
Using these numbers, the Kelly’s Criterion ( p – (1-p)/b) gives a fraction of 0.3826 for betting on team A to win and a fraction of 0.2672 for betting on team B. Since you don’t really know what the probability to win actually is, you only know that the Kelly fraction is around those values but you do know that you do not want to exceed the Kelly’s fraction on a bet so you do a 75% fractional Kelly bet on team A since that’s the larger of the two Kelly fractions and hence gives you the most margin for error. That means if you have $50 in your wallet, you would bet $14 on team A to win. But you also have the option of hedging and playing both sides, so divide your wallet in half and bet $7.17 on team A to win and $5.01 on team B to win, it’s best to do a sanity check and do an expectation calculation to see if you’re still gaining on the edge since you will both win and lose at the same time ie.: your expected gain would be 0.6296 * ( $7.17 * 1.5 – $5.01 ) + ( 1 – 0.6296) * ( $5.01 * 6.1 – $7.17 ) which gives you $12.28 which means this is a viable hedge. Basically in this scenario, you will make $5.74 overall if team A wins and $23.39 overall if team A loses. Since you have gain either way, it may be viable to scale up your bets by a factor of 4 and invest all available capital but the usual wisdom is to never ever exceed the Kelly’s Fraction. In theory, the result over the long run should be exponential growth of your wallet so long as you remain under the Kelly’s Fraction, any higher and you could be the victim of volatility, hence the fractional Kelly bet.
This also means that the bookie sweetened the pot on the underdog because most people were betting on the favorite so he needed underdog bets to cover if team A wins. He makes money off the spread (he’s hedging too) so he doesn’t care if the odds are giving you the edge once the betting volume guarantees his profit. Not all odds present this situation but if you can spot it quickly enough, you can benefit from it.
You should also try various values for the probability of a win so that you know in what range of probabilities, the hedge would still pay off. That is graph the expected gain versus probability of team A winning when you vary it from 0 to 1. You should do this analysis on several prospective games to bet on and bet on the game that shows a profit over the widest range of probabilities.
Naturally, if you can collect more information about the actual probability of team A winning, the better especially if you have more information than the bookie. One strategy might be to collect a consensus of odds offered by several bookies, another would be to evaluate opening odds as those would be based on the bookies own research, yet another would be to use odds as close to closing as possible which reflect the consensus of the betting community. Another would be to track who actually is doing the math for the bookie and evaluate the history of his opening odds versus the actual performance in the past to come up with a value of how much off he tends to be. You can also do your own research and calculate the probabilities on past performance of the teams in question and of what you know of the game. Also there are many computer simulation games that use statistics on the individual players to run a simulated game. You could run a couple of thousand game simultations and use the results as probabilities.
One of the reason for the Kelly Criterion is so that you have money left for the next bet if you lose the current bet but the equation is based on a binary outcome. I would have to think a little bit more to come up with a 3 outcome equation. Actually I’ve been trying to generalize the Kelly’s Formula for a couple of days now.
Note that the Kelly Criterion was the application of Shannon’s work in telecommunications to betting. Two MIT professors Thorp and Kassouf took these equations to Vegas, made a killing, then to the race track, made even more money and then to WallStreet and the Hedge Fund industry was born.
Unfortunately, sites and bots like betfair are not designed to be used by Engineers so they are not amenable to the use of equations. The best you can do is download text files to import into Excel spreadsheets to evaluate the situation.
As to midstream optimization, yes Financial Engineers do that too but I haven’t worked it all out yet. Still focusing on betsizing. They are now calling Financial Engineers Quants on Wallstreet.
Is your example a real game? Can I still get these odds? If so I’d like to place a couple of bets.
Do they give odds on draws? If so, I should be able to work a draw into the equations.
I am looking for a way that my friends and I can bet on football throughout the season with a point system. We are tired of betting individual games and losing to a bookie and decided to bet against each other. We are trying to come up with a way that takes some thought and will remain competitive the whole season with different pay outs at the end or weekly. I would like something similar to fantasy football, only with betting. Any ideas?
$5 weekly. keep tabs and pay up at end of year. watch your bye weeks